Jointly conducted by UGB and UBMA, this research explores epidemic dynamics in exchange networks and their implications.
Mathieu Moslonka Lefebvre, researcher at LIRIMA (Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis Sénégal).
Thesis defended in 2014.
This research is the result of an international co-supervision between several partner institutions.
Referenced in the ABES/STAR network, this thesis meets the rigorous criteria of French higher education.
Exchanges between individuals and businesses play a fundamental role in meeting the diverse needs of society. However, these interactions, while beneficial in many aspects, can also become a vector for the spread of infectious diseases. The thesis of Mathieu Moslonka Lefebvre, conducted at the Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, highlights these complex dynamics that intertwine between the adaptive behaviors of economic agents and epidemic dynamics. By integrating sophisticated mathematical models and rigorous empirical analyses, the author convincingly demonstrates how risk-averse behaviors influence infectious contacts and how interaction constraints modify these propagation dynamics.
The results of this research reveal that adaptive behaviors, such as adjustments in social and economic interactions, can have ambivalent effects on the spread of infections. For example, in specific contexts such as animal exchange markets or sexual contact networks, the overlap of interaction constraints can play a crucial role in limiting the severity of epidemics. This raises critical questions about how public health policies can be formulated to balance disease prevention and the continuity of economic exchanges.
Take the example of animal markets in Benin, where frequent exchanges between breeders and traders can facilitate the transmission of zoonotic diseases. If regulatory measures are put in place, such as quarantine periods for newly introduced animals, this can reduce disease transmission while allowing economic actors to continue their activities. This demonstrates the importance of a nuanced approach that considers both public health and economic imperatives.
The recommendations of this research are particularly relevant for policymakers and public health officials. By adopting an interdisciplinary approach, it is possible to develop prevention strategies that take into account economic realities while protecting public health. The results suggest that practical measures, such as regulating exchanges in markets, can reduce disease transmission while minimizing negative impacts on trade. For example, awareness campaigns on hygiene practices in markets can also play a key role in reducing health risks.
In summary, this thesis paves the way for broader reflection on the challenges posed by epidemics in an interconnected world. The tools and ideas developed can be applied to other fields, such as ecology or economics, to better understand and manage future health crises. Indeed, modeling epidemic dynamics in exchange networks with constrained interactions and adaptive behaviors could also be relevant in the context of natural resource management, where the behaviors of economic actors directly influence the sustainability of ecosystems.
It is essential to recognize that epidemic dynamics do not occur in a vacuum. They are often the result of socio-economic, cultural, and environmental factors that interact in complex ways. For example, in some West African countries, cultural traditions can influence health behaviors, making certain populations more vulnerable to the spread of diseases. Thus, taking these factors into account in disease propagation models is crucial for a thorough understanding of epidemic dynamics.
In conclusion, the thesis of Mathieu Moslonka Lefebvre represents a significant contribution to research on epidemic dynamics and adaptive behaviors. It invites a rethinking of public health strategies in a context where economic exchanges are inevitable and where the health of populations must be preserved. The practical implications of this research are vast and could serve as a basis for innovative policies that promote both public health and economic development, not only in Benin but also throughout West Africa.
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Sources and Access
Mathieu Moslonka Lefebvre. Modelling epidemic dynamics in exchange networks with constrained interactions and adaptive behaviour.. General Mathematics [math.GM]. AgroParisTech, 2014. English. ⟨NNT : 2014AGPT0064⟩. ⟨tel-05129884⟩