Jointly conducted by UPVM and Inria, this research models the transmission of hepatitis B in Senegal.
Abdoul Azziz Fall, researcher at LMAM; IECL (Université Paul Verlaine - Metz).
Thesis defended in 2010 at the doctoral school Ecole Doctorale IAEM Lorraine (Informatique, Automatique, Électronique - Électrotechnique, Mathématiques).
This research is the result of an international co-supervision between several partner institutions.
Epidemiological modeling is a powerful tool for understanding and anticipating the spread of infectious diseases. In the context of the fight against hepatitis B, this study focuses on Senegal, a country where the prevalence of this infection remains concerning. By proposing two distinct transmission models, one without vertical transmission and the other incorporating this dimension, the author, Abdoul Azziz Fall, highlights crucial public health issues.
Vertical transmission, that is, the transmission from mother to child, is a factor often underestimated in strategies to combat hepatitis B. By integrating this variable into his models, the study raises important questions: how can public health policies adapt to better target this form of transmission? What measures need to be implemented to reduce the incidence of hepatitis B in newborns?
It is essential to understand that vertical transmission can occur during pregnancy, at the time of delivery, or through breastfeeding. For example, in Senegal, women carrying the hepatitis B virus can transmit the virus to their children, which poses a major challenge for child health. Statistics show that without intervention, the risk of mother-to-child transmission can reach up to 90% in some cases. This underscores the urgency of a proactive approach to prevent this transmission.
The results of this research are highly relevant. The analysis of the stability of the models, conducted using Lyapunov techniques, allows for a better understanding of the disease dynamics. By confronting numerical simulations with empirical data from the hepatitis B control program in Senegal, the study offers concrete perspectives for decision-makers. For example, the application of these models could help identify the most at-risk populations and direct resources to areas where transmission is highest.
It is essential that decision-makers take these results into account to develop effective public health policies. The fight against hepatitis B cannot be limited to awareness campaigns. It requires an integrated approach that considers the different modes of transmission and the cultural and social specificities of the country. For instance, targeted vaccination campaigns for pregnant women and newborns could significantly reduce the number of new hepatitis B cases.
Moreover, it is crucial to involve local communities in the fight against this disease. Community initiatives, such as awareness and education programs on hepatitis B, can play a key role in reducing the stigma associated with this infection. By collaborating with community leaders and local organizations, health authorities can create a favorable environment for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B.
In conclusion, this research paves the way for in-depth reflection on strategies to combat hepatitis B in Senegal. The proposed models can serve as a basis for targeted interventions tailored to local realities. Decision-makers must seize these results to act quickly and effectively. By integrating vertical transmission into public health policies, it is possible to significantly reduce the prevalence of hepatitis B and improve the health of future generations.
Thus, the commitment of governments, non-governmental organizations, and communities is essential to address this public health challenge. The fight against hepatitis B in Senegal must be a priority, not only to protect individuals but also to ensure a healthy and prosperous future for the entire population.
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Sources and Access
Abdoul Azziz Fall. Études de quelques modèles épidémiologiques : application à la transmission du virus de l'hépatite B en Afrique subsaharienne (cas du Sénégal). Systèmes dynamiques [math.DS]. Université Paul Verlaine - Metz; Université Gaston Berger, Saint Louis, Sénégal, 2010. Français. ⟨NNT : 2010METZ003S⟩. ⟨tel-01752678v2⟩