Jointly conducted by UGB and IRD, this research offers an advanced modeling of human decisions for land management.
Chi Quang Truong, researcher at UMMISCO (Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis Sénégal).
Thesis defended in 2016 at the doctoral school École doctorale Informatique, télécommunications et électronique de Paris (1992-....).
This research is the result of an international co-supervision between several partner institutions.
Referenced in the ABES/STAR network, this thesis meets the rigorous criteria of French higher education.
The thesis of Chi Quang Truong, conducted under the joint supervision of Gaston Berger University and IRD, addresses a crucial issue: how to integrate human decision-making processes into land use change models. Using the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm, the author proposes a cognitive approach that allows for a better understanding of the motivations of stakeholders in the context of land management, particularly in the face of challenges posed by climate change. This BDI model, which focuses on the beliefs, desires, and intentions of individuals, offers an innovative perspective for grasping the complexity of decisions related to land use.
This research is set against a backdrop where decisions regarding land use have significant repercussions on the environment and societies. For example, in the Mekong Delta, farmers' choices regarding which crops to prioritize can influence not only their income but also local biodiversity and water quality. By integrating socio-economic and environmental factors into a simulation model, Truong demonstrates that farmers' decisions can be modeled more accurately. This paves the way for more suitable and effective public policies that take into account the realities on the ground and the aspirations of local populations.
The results obtained in the Mekong Delta, a region particularly vulnerable to climate change, show that this approach can be generalized to other socio-ecological systems. By validating his model in a complex environment, the author proves that considering human factors is essential for reliable forecasts and informed decisions. For instance, frequent flooding and rising sea levels in this region require appropriate responses, and traditional models, often too rigid, cannot capture the dynamics of human choices in the face of these challenges.
The implications of this research are vast. Decision-makers can use these models to anticipate the impacts of land management policies and to design strategies that take into account local realities. By integrating cognitive models, it becomes possible to simulate various scenarios and assess the consequences of different decisions. This not only allows for a better understanding of the interactions between different stakeholders but also enables forecasting the reactions of populations to measures such as land use regulation or the introduction of new agricultural practices.
In summary, this thesis is not limited to a simple technical modeling. It invites a rethinking of how we approach land management, placing humans at the heart of decision-making processes. Political actors, urban planners, and researchers must seize these tools to build a sustainable and resilient future in the face of environmental challenges. Indeed, considering human dimensions in land management models can also promote better social acceptability of projects, allowing communities to express themselves and actively participate in decisions that concern them.
Moreover, this approach could be extended to other contexts in West Africa, where issues related to land use are equally pressing. For example, in countries like Benin, where agriculture is the main source of income for the majority of the population, understanding farmers' motivations can help design policies that promote sustainable practices while ensuring food security. By integrating cognitive models into planning processes, it becomes possible to create synergies among different stakeholders, whether they are farmers, NGOs, or local authorities.
In conclusion, Chi Quang Truong's thesis represents a significant advancement in understanding the decision-making dynamics related to land use. By integrating the cognitive processes of stakeholders, it paves the way for a more holistic and inclusive approach to land management. This could very well be the key to addressing current environmental challenges and building a sustainable future where humans and the environment coexist in harmony.
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Sources and Access
Chi Quang Truong. Integrating cognitive models of human decision-making in agent-based models : an application to land use planning under climate change in the Mekong river delta. Modeling and Simulation. Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI; Université de Cần Thơ (Vietnam), 2016. English. ⟨NNT : 2016PA066580⟩. ⟨tel-01543066⟩